Alguém se lembra quando chamavam a Primavera Árabe de “a vitória da democracia” há alguns meses?

Pois bem, agora perceberam que seu nome verdadeiro é “Inverno Islâmico“:

Shock is acceptable if one is surprised by something completely unexpected.

This is something that does not apply in any way, shape, or form to some Arab and non-Arab writers, media figures, and [political] analysts, who are today expressing their shock and disappointment with regards to the course that the so-called Arab Spring has taken. Today, those who supported the Egyptian revolution are in a state of shock with regards to the domination of the political arena by religious parties and currents.

This is something that has expanded beyond the Egyptian scene. Indeed what we are seeing is a political Islamist tsunami occupying the scene and displacing the “civil” youth. In Libya, we find [religious] fundamentalists of all backgrounds, from those who have taken up arms, to those who are making speeches and giving sermons, inside the country and abroad, not to mention figures like Ali al-Salabi.

E enquanto isso, Theodore Dalrymple já profetiza de que, mesmo com a morte de déspotas como Kadafi ou a deposição de tiranetes como Mubarak, em breve teremos uma onda de ditaduras pelo mundo, seja no Oriente Médio, seja na Europa:

There is, perhaps, no perfect solution to the problem of what to do with a fallen despot. To allow him to live in peaceful, and usually very prosperous, retirement seems unjust to the victims of his despotism, and is likely to embitter them. He will seem to them almost to have been rewarded for his deeds, for a prosperous retirement is the wish of any, rarely fulfilled. To treat him as a scapegoat, as if he alone were responsible for his despotism and he had no accomplices, is to create an abscess of hypocrisy and historical untruth that sooner or later will have to be opened, or will burst spontaneously. To punish not only the despot but all who co-operated with or benefited from his rule is to risk endless social conflict and violent reaction.

It might be thought that this a problem of an age that is now past; that after the Arab Spring, we are entering an age of universal democracy. I think this is the case no more than it was ever the case that history was at an end. Astonishing though it may seem, there were rumours in Europe of a possible coup in Greece as a solution to the impasse there. When disorder becomes great enough, men (as Goethe said) long for the man on the white horse, for we love order at least as much as we love liberty, for the former is a precondition of the exercise of the latter, and of much else besides. Europe, the Yugoslavia de nos jours, is becoming ungovernable, thanks to its governors. Another age of the man on the white horse might be dawning.